A historic volume of commercial real estate debt is coming due over the next two years — and most of it was originated at rates well below where the market sits today. If you have a commercial mortgage maturing in 2026 or 2027, refinancing on the same terms you got last time is not a safe assumption.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s 2025 Commercial Real Estate Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes, roughly $875 billion of the $5.0 trillion in outstanding U.S. commercial mortgages is scheduled to mature in 2026, with another $652 billion following in 2027. S&P Global Market Intelligence, using a different methodology, puts the number higher — projecting the maturity wall will keep climbing before peaking near $1.26 trillion in 2027.
The two estimates differ because they measure different things: MBA surveys loan servicers for year-end balances (which already reflect extensions and workouts), while S&P models maturities directly from property-level records. Either way, the conclusion is the same — a very large volume of CRE debt has to be refinanced, extended, recapitalized, or sold over the next two to three years, and lenders have signaled that open-ended “extend and pretend” workouts are largely over.
Much of the debt maturing now was originated during the ultra-low-rate period of 2020–2021, when five- to ten-year commercial loan terms were common. Borrowers refinancing today are moving from those historically low rates into a materially higher cost of capital — often a jump of one to two full percentage points or more, depending on property type and loan vintage.
That gap matters for three reasons:
A loan that comfortably cleared a 1.25x DSCR at origination may not clear 1.0x at today’s rates without a paydown or additional equity.
Higher cap rates in several sectors mean loan-to-value ratios calculated at today’s appraised value can look different than they did three to five years ago.
Reserve requirements, DSCR floors, and documentation standards have generally tightened since the last refinancing cycle for many of these borrowers.
If your property isn’t quite ready for permanent financing — whether due to lease-up, renovation, or a temporary performance gap — a bridge loan can buy the time needed to stabilize before locking into a permanent refinance.
For stabilized rental and investment properties, a DSCR loan qualifies based on the property’s income rather than personal tax returns, which can be a faster and more flexible path than a conventional bank refinance.
Owner-occupied commercial borrowers may be able to refinance existing debt through the SBA 504 program, which includes provisions specifically for refinancing eligible commercial real estate debt.
For stabilized commercial assets that no longer fit their original loan structure, a mini-perm can bridge to a longer-term solution or serve as the permanent refinance itself.
expect underwriting closer to a 1.0x floor at minimum, with stronger pricing reserved for deals clearing 1.10x or higher.
75% LTV is a common ceiling across many direct lending programs today, down from looser standards in prior cycles.
lenders are generally asking for more post-closing liquidity than they did three to five years ago.
an appraisal grounded in current market cap rates, not the value assumed at your last refinance.
The practical takeaway: don’t assume your next loan will look like your last one. Starting the refinance conversation 6–12 months before your maturity date gives you time to address gaps — whether that means paying down principal, bringing in additional equity, or choosing a different loan structure entirely.
Options generally include a short-term extension or modification from your existing lender, a bridge loan to buy additional time, or in some cases a forced sale. Lenders have signaled reduced willingness to grant open-ended extensions compared to prior years, which makes early planning more important than in past cycles.
Yes, for stabilized rental and investment properties that meet DSCR qualification — generally a minimum 1.0x debt service coverage ratio and up to 75% loan-to-value, depending on the program.
A bridge loan is short-term financing meant to carry a property through a transition — lease-up, renovation, or stabilization — before it qualifies for permanent, longer-term financing. A permanent refinance replaces the original loan with longer-term debt sized to the property’s stabilized performance.
Office represents a meaningful share of maturities and remains the most closely watched property type due to elevated vacancy, though its share of total maturities has been trending down from its post-pandemic peak as more distressed office debt works through the system.
Most advisors recommend starting the refinance conversation 6 to 12 months ahead of your maturity date — enough time to address any gaps in DSCR, valuation, or documentation before the deadline becomes urgent.
If you have a commercial loan maturing in the next 12–18 months, the earlier you start the conversation, the more options you have. Tell us about the property and a Cressida Loan Officer will follow up.